World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotKorea RepublicKOR

Rank#23baseline #23

Elo1723#32

Champion2%baseline 2%

Leader gap3.4%

Final6.9%baseline 6.9%

Group advance76.2%baseline 76.2%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 79Scenario 82.8

Defense+1.5

Base 79Scenario 80.5

Form0

Base 79Scenario 79

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsLos Angeles FC

Heung-min SonProfileCaptain and elite transition finisher

Son remains Korea Republic's attacking reference, combining transition speed, two-footed finishing, and captaincy in high-pressure matches.

DefendersBayern Munich

Min-jae KimProfileTop-level centre-back

Kim anchors the back line with recovery speed, aerial coverage, and Champions League-level defending against elite forwards.

MidfieldersParis Saint-Germain

Kang-in LeeProfileLeft-footed creator

Lee gives Korea Republic a left-footed chance creator who can receive between lines, carry pressure, and reshape set pieces.

ForwardsWolverhampton Wanderers

Hee-chan HwangProfilePremier League pressing forward

Hwang adds direct running, pressing intensity, and penalty-box threat when Korea Republic need a faster attacking rhythm.

MidfieldersFeyenoord Rotterdam

In-beom HwangProfileMidfield tempo setter

Hwang sets the midfield rhythm with clean passing angles and helps Korea Republic move from defensive recovery into controlled attacks.

GoalkeepersUlsan HD FC

Hyeon-woo JoProfileTournament-tested goalkeeper

Jo gives the squad a tournament-tested goalkeeper option with shot-stopping pedigree and a calm reference behind the defense.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Bum-keun SongJeonbuk Hyundai MotorsHyeon-woo JoUlsan HD FCSeung-gyu KimFC Tokyo

Defenders

Min-jae KimBayern MunichHan-beom LeeFC MidtjyllandTae-hyeon KimKashima AntlersGi-hyuk LeeGangwon FCWi-je ChoJeonbuk Hyundai MotorsTae-seok LeeAustria ViennaYoung-woo SeolRed Star BelgradeMoon-hwan KimDaejeon Hana Citizen

Midfielders

In-beom HwangFeyenoord RotterdamJin-seob ParkZhejiang FCJens CastropBorussia MönchengladbachSeung-ho PaikBirmingham CityJin-gyu KimJeonbuk Hyundai MotorsKang-in LeeParis Saint-GermainJun-ho BaeStoke CityJae-sung Lee1.FSV Mainz 05Dong-gyeong LeeUlsan HD FC

Forwards

Heung-min SonLos Angeles FCJi-sung EomSwansea CityHyun-jun YangCeltic FCHyeon-gyu OhBesiktas JKHee-chan HwangWolverhampton WanderersGue-sung ChoFC Midtjylland

SourcesTransfermarkt South Korea 2026 squad Wikipedia player biographies Transfermarkt profiles and social links K League Cho Wi-je photo profile

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.1%

Sleepers22 teams40.5%Selected team

Long shots12 teams5.8%

#	Elo
11	1943#9	3.1%	10.2%	17.6%	30.4%	52.3%	90.2%
23	1723#32	2%	6.9%	12.5%	22.8%	41.5%	76.2%
33	1680#34	1.3%	4.7%	8.9%	16.9%	32.2%	62.1%
43	1559#44	0.4%	1.8%	3.6%	7.5%	15.6%	33.1%

Knockout pathKorea Republic

Round of 32vs Japan40.1%
Win in 90 min 28.9%Reach stage 76.2%
Round of 16vs Colombia33.8%
Win in 90 min 24.3%Reach stage 41.5%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil30.2%
Win in 90 min 21.7%Reach stage 22.8%
Semi-finalvs Spain21.7%
Win in 90 min 15.6%Reach stage 12.5%
Finalvs Argentina20.3%
Win in 90 min 14.6%Reach stage 6.9%

Champion2%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance76.2%

Round of 1641.5%

Quarter-final22.8%

Semi-final12.5%

Final6.9%

Champion2%

Group A outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 2%current 2%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 6.9%current 6.9%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 76.2%current 76.2%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Korea Republic35.5%AdvancevsArgentina64.5%Opponent advance

90 min win 30.2%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 54.9%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico41%31%20%90%

Korea Republic27%30%27%76%

Czechia20%24%30%62%

South Africa11%15%22%33%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03