World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotCzechiaCZE

Rank#26baseline #26

Elo1680#34

Champion1.7%baseline 1.7%

Leader gap3.7%

Final5.9%baseline 5.9%

Group advance70.5%baseline 70.5%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 78Scenario 81.8

Defense+1.5

Base 78Scenario 79.5

Form0

Base 78Scenario 78

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersWest Ham United

Tomáš SoučekProfileCaptain and midfield reference

Souček gives Czechia a captain who can control second balls, defend the box, and turn set pieces into high-leverage chances.

ForwardsBayer 04 Leverkusen

Patrik SchickProfileElite penalty-box finisher

Schick gives Czechia a proven centre-forward profile with penalty-box timing, aerial threat, and one-touch finishing quality.

DefendersWolverhampton Wanderers

Ladislav KrejčíProfileBall-playing centre-back

Krejčí adds size, left-footed buildup, and set-piece presence, helping Czechia keep structure while playing out.

DefendersTSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Vladimír CoufalProfileExperienced right-back

Coufal gives the right side Premier League-tested defending, crossing volume, and a veteran reference in game management.

ForwardsTSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Adam HlozekProfileFlexible forward runner

Hlozek can play across the front line, giving Czechia a younger runner who can connect wide attacks with central finishing.

GoalkeepersPSV Eindhoven

Matej KovarProfileModern goalkeeper

Kovar gives Czechia a modern goalkeeper profile with distribution range and the ability to support higher defensive positioning.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Lukas HornicekSC BragaMatej KovarPSV EindhovenJindrich StanekSK Slavia Prague

Defenders

Ladislav KrejčíWolverhampton WanderersRobin HranacTSG 1899 HoffenheimStepan ChaloupekSK Slavia PragueDavid ZimaSK Slavia PragueTomas HolesSK Slavia PragueJaroslav ZelenýAC Sparta PragueDavid JurásekSK Slavia PragueVladimír CoufalTSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Midfielders

Tomáš SoučekWest Ham UnitedMichal SadílekSK Slavia PragueLukas CervFC Viktoria PlzenHugo SochurekAC Sparta PragueAlexandr SojkaFC Viktoria PlzenVladimír DaridaFC Hradec KraloveDavid DouderaSK Slavia PraguePavel SulcOlympique LyonDenis VisinskyFC Viktoria Plzen

Forwards

Lukas ProvodSK Slavia PraguePatrik SchickBayer 04 LeverkusenAdam HlozekTSG 1899 HoffenheimMojmír ChytilSK Slavia PragueJan KuchtaAC Sparta PragueTomas ChorySK Slavia Prague

SourcesTransfermarkt Czechia 2026 squad Wikipedia player biographies Transfermarkt profiles and social links

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.1%

Sleepers22 teams40.5%Selected team

Long shots12 teams5.8%

#	Elo
11	1943#9	3.1%	10.2%	17.6%	30.3%	52.3%	90.1%
26	1680#34	1.7%	5.9%	10.9%	20.3%	37.7%	70.5%
27	1723#32	1.6%	5.6%	10.3%	19.3%	36.1%	68.1%
43	1559#44	0.4%	1.7%	3.6%	7.5%	15.5%	33%

Knockout pathCzechia

Round of 32vs Japan36.9%
Win in 90 min 26.6%Reach stage 70.5%
Round of 16vs Colombia30.8%
Win in 90 min 22.2%Reach stage 37.7%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil27.4%
Win in 90 min 19.7%Reach stage 20.3%
Semi-finalvs Spain19.5%
Win in 90 min 14%Reach stage 10.9%
Finalvs Argentina18.2%
Win in 90 min 13.1%Reach stage 5.9%

Champion1.7%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance70.5%

Round of 1637.7%

Quarter-final20.3%

Semi-final10.9%

Final5.9%

Champion1.7%

Group A outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 1.7%current 1.7%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 5.9%current 5.9%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 70.5%current 70.5%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Czechia34.8%AdvancevsArgentina65.2%Opponent advance

90 min win 29.6%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 55.5%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico41%31%20%90%

Czechia24%28%29%71%

Korea Republic23%27%29%68%

South Africa11%15%22%33%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03